forecasting
Why long-term forecasting in grid planning is more important than ever
The world is changing, fast. Even though we are just in the early stages of the energy transition we are already starting to see impacts from it. Despite a fast paced growth for electric vehicles, CO2 emissions from transportation are still growing, much due to the fact that heavy emitters, like aviation, are still waiting for electric solutions to be commercially viable.
This fast paced change is causing disruptions in the supply chain of traditional grid components. One of the grid components that have had the largest disruptions is transformers. In 2021, the average lead time for a transformer was 50 weeks. At the end of 2023, this increased to 120 weeks. And larger transformers have seen lead times peak at 210 weeks. Even though there has been some stabilization, the lead time trend is still growing.
With longer delay times, it becomes more important than ever to be proactive in planning. The reason for this is twofold. As growth accelerates the time it takes for a transformer’s health status to change from: OK to S**T, is decreasing, fast. In addition, with the increase in transformer lead time, the time from decision to roll-out, is twice as long as just a few years ago. That means, as a grid operator, just to maintain your grid at the same level as today, you need to become proactive in planning and acquisition.
But long waiting times for new equipment is not the only reason why long-term planning is becoming increasingly important.
In addition to long lead times, the typical project duration to upgrade or install new large power transformers is about 10 years. And after those 10 years, the transformer is expected to last for another 50 years. That’s a total of 60 years before the transformer is retired. Talk about a test of time.
But, what can happen during 60 years? Let’s have a look at what changed in USA in the last 60 years.
60 years ago, in the mid 60s:
Then: No homes had air-conditioning. Now: 87% of households in the US has an air-conditioner. With the typical power demand for an air-conditioner being about 4 kW. That is 375 GW of new power demand!
Then: No homes had dishwashers. Now: 74% of households have a dishwasher, with a typical power demand of 2 kW. That is almost 200 GW of new power demand, from washing dishes!
Then: Peak demand in the US in the 60s was about 180 GW. Now: in 2024 it was about 750 GW. That is a quadrupling in demand!
So, what can we expect for the next 60 years?
Well, it’s hard to make relevant prediction whether there will be flying cars or lightsabers (electric ones, that need charging obviously) in the coming 60 years. But we know one thing. We are in the early phase of a time-period with some of the biggest changes seen in modern times. Societal changes impacting the grid are growing exponentially, while the power grid is currently growing incrementally. Unless grid planning is speed up, we risk that grid will become the energy transition barrier.
Yet, we can’t avoid the fact that there are uncertainties about which future we will end up in. Preferably, we want to understand uncertainties and impacts of different futures and the best way of doing this is through a detailed development, and analysis of different futures. Meet Endre’s scenario-based grid planning. We will dwell deeper into scenario-based grid planning in a future article, but we will give you a brief introduction.
Scenarios represent different futures and associated outcomes. These scenarios can, and should be, connected to specific local conditions. District heating or cooling can have important contribution to power demand in certain areas, but not in others. Different EV charging strategies impact different areas, climate change scenarios have different implications depending on the region, active participation of customers will vary depending on ability to perform control and economic incentives. With recent developments in data availability and AI, these options don’t need to be black boxes of assumptions, but can be measured and modeled. Scenario-based grid planning includes all the above, and the process of how you work with and evaluate different scenarios.
Without proper analysis of long-term demand, in the worst case, you as a grid operator won’t have time to expand the grid in time for components to fail, or need to decline new connection requests due to a lack of capacity. This will hurt your finances, your local community and the climate.
At Endre, we specialize in providing the best possible information about future investment needs to grid operators. We make sure that you have the best possible insights at your hand. If you want to learn more about Endre’s solution for grid planning, reach out for a demo!
The world is changing, fast. Even though we are just in the early stages of the energy transition we are already starting to see impacts from it. Despite a fast paced growth for electric vehicles, CO2 emissions from transportation are still growing, much due to the fact that heavy emitters, like aviation, are still waiting for electric solutions to be commercially viable.
This fast paced change is causing disruptions in the supply chain of traditional grid components. One of the grid components that have had the largest disruptions is transformers. In 2021, the average lead time for a transformer was 50 weeks. At the end of 2023, this increased to 120 weeks. And larger transformers have seen lead times peak at 210 weeks. Even though there has been some stabilization, the lead time trend is still growing.
With longer delay times, it becomes more important than ever to be proactive in planning. The reason for this is twofold. As growth accelerates the time it takes for a transformer’s health status to change from: OK to S**T, is decreasing, fast. In addition, with the increase in transformer lead time, the time from decision to roll-out, is twice as long as just a few years ago. That means, as a grid operator, just to maintain your grid at the same level as today, you need to become proactive in planning and acquisition.
But long waiting times for new equipment is not the only reason why long-term planning is becoming increasingly important.
In addition to long lead times, the typical project duration to upgrade or install new large power transformers is about 10 years. And after those 10 years, the transformer is expected to last for another 50 years. That’s a total of 60 years before the transformer is retired. Talk about a test of time.
But, what can happen during 60 years? Let’s have a look at what changed in USA in the last 60 years.
60 years ago, in the mid 60s:
Then: No homes had air-conditioning. Now: 87% of households in the US has an air-conditioner. With the typical power demand for an air-conditioner being about 4 kW. That is 375 GW of new power demand!
Then: No homes had dishwashers. Now: 74% of households have a dishwasher, with a typical power demand of 2 kW. That is almost 200 GW of new power demand, from washing dishes!
Then: Peak demand in the US in the 60s was about 180 GW. Now: in 2024 it was about 750 GW. That is a quadrupling in demand!
So, what can we expect for the next 60 years?
Well, it’s hard to make relevant prediction whether there will be flying cars or lightsabers (electric ones, that need charging obviously) in the coming 60 years. But we know one thing. We are in the early phase of a time-period with some of the biggest changes seen in modern times. Societal changes impacting the grid are growing exponentially, while the power grid is currently growing incrementally. Unless grid planning is speed up, we risk that grid will become the energy transition barrier.
Yet, we can’t avoid the fact that there are uncertainties about which future we will end up in. Preferably, we want to understand uncertainties and impacts of different futures and the best way of doing this is through a detailed development, and analysis of different futures. Meet Endre’s scenario-based grid planning. We will dwell deeper into scenario-based grid planning in a future article, but we will give you a brief introduction.
Scenarios represent different futures and associated outcomes. These scenarios can, and should be, connected to specific local conditions. District heating or cooling can have important contribution to power demand in certain areas, but not in others. Different EV charging strategies impact different areas, climate change scenarios have different implications depending on the region, active participation of customers will vary depending on ability to perform control and economic incentives. With recent developments in data availability and AI, these options don’t need to be black boxes of assumptions, but can be measured and modeled. Scenario-based grid planning includes all the above, and the process of how you work with and evaluate different scenarios.
Without proper analysis of long-term demand, in the worst case, you as a grid operator won’t have time to expand the grid in time for components to fail, or need to decline new connection requests due to a lack of capacity. This will hurt your finances, your local community and the climate.
At Endre, we specialize in providing the best possible information about future investment needs to grid operators. We make sure that you have the best possible insights at your hand. If you want to learn more about Endre’s solution for grid planning, reach out for a demo!
The world is changing, fast. Even though we are just in the early stages of the energy transition we are already starting to see impacts from it. Despite a fast paced growth for electric vehicles, CO2 emissions from transportation are still growing, much due to the fact that heavy emitters, like aviation, are still waiting for electric solutions to be commercially viable.
This fast paced change is causing disruptions in the supply chain of traditional grid components. One of the grid components that have had the largest disruptions is transformers. In 2021, the average lead time for a transformer was 50 weeks. At the end of 2023, this increased to 120 weeks. And larger transformers have seen lead times peak at 210 weeks. Even though there has been some stabilization, the lead time trend is still growing.
With longer delay times, it becomes more important than ever to be proactive in planning. The reason for this is twofold. As growth accelerates the time it takes for a transformer’s health status to change from: OK to S**T, is decreasing, fast. In addition, with the increase in transformer lead time, the time from decision to roll-out, is twice as long as just a few years ago. That means, as a grid operator, just to maintain your grid at the same level as today, you need to become proactive in planning and acquisition.
But long waiting times for new equipment is not the only reason why long-term planning is becoming increasingly important.
In addition to long lead times, the typical project duration to upgrade or install new large power transformers is about 10 years. And after those 10 years, the transformer is expected to last for another 50 years. That’s a total of 60 years before the transformer is retired. Talk about a test of time.
But, what can happen during 60 years? Let’s have a look at what changed in USA in the last 60 years.
60 years ago, in the mid 60s:
Then: No homes had air-conditioning. Now: 87% of households in the US has an air-conditioner. With the typical power demand for an air-conditioner being about 4 kW. That is 375 GW of new power demand!
Then: No homes had dishwashers. Now: 74% of households have a dishwasher, with a typical power demand of 2 kW. That is almost 200 GW of new power demand, from washing dishes!
Then: Peak demand in the US in the 60s was about 180 GW. Now: in 2024 it was about 750 GW. That is a quadrupling in demand!
So, what can we expect for the next 60 years?
Well, it’s hard to make relevant prediction whether there will be flying cars or lightsabers (electric ones, that need charging obviously) in the coming 60 years. But we know one thing. We are in the early phase of a time-period with some of the biggest changes seen in modern times. Societal changes impacting the grid are growing exponentially, while the power grid is currently growing incrementally. Unless grid planning is speed up, we risk that grid will become the energy transition barrier.
Yet, we can’t avoid the fact that there are uncertainties about which future we will end up in. Preferably, we want to understand uncertainties and impacts of different futures and the best way of doing this is through a detailed development, and analysis of different futures. Meet Endre’s scenario-based grid planning. We will dwell deeper into scenario-based grid planning in a future article, but we will give you a brief introduction.
Scenarios represent different futures and associated outcomes. These scenarios can, and should be, connected to specific local conditions. District heating or cooling can have important contribution to power demand in certain areas, but not in others. Different EV charging strategies impact different areas, climate change scenarios have different implications depending on the region, active participation of customers will vary depending on ability to perform control and economic incentives. With recent developments in data availability and AI, these options don’t need to be black boxes of assumptions, but can be measured and modeled. Scenario-based grid planning includes all the above, and the process of how you work with and evaluate different scenarios.
Without proper analysis of long-term demand, in the worst case, you as a grid operator won’t have time to expand the grid in time for components to fail, or need to decline new connection requests due to a lack of capacity. This will hurt your finances, your local community and the climate.
At Endre, we specialize in providing the best possible information about future investment needs to grid operators. We make sure that you have the best possible insights at your hand. If you want to learn more about Endre’s solution for grid planning, reach out for a demo!
The world is changing, fast. Even though we are just in the early stages of the energy transition we are already starting to see impacts from it. Despite a fast paced growth for electric vehicles, CO2 emissions from transportation are still growing, much due to the fact that heavy emitters, like aviation, are still waiting for electric solutions to be commercially viable.
This fast paced change is causing disruptions in the supply chain of traditional grid components. One of the grid components that have had the largest disruptions is transformers. In 2021, the average lead time for a transformer was 50 weeks. At the end of 2023, this increased to 120 weeks. And larger transformers have seen lead times peak at 210 weeks. Even though there has been some stabilization, the lead time trend is still growing.
With longer delay times, it becomes more important than ever to be proactive in planning. The reason for this is twofold. As growth accelerates the time it takes for a transformer’s health status to change from: OK to S**T, is decreasing, fast. In addition, with the increase in transformer lead time, the time from decision to roll-out, is twice as long as just a few years ago. That means, as a grid operator, just to maintain your grid at the same level as today, you need to become proactive in planning and acquisition.
But long waiting times for new equipment is not the only reason why long-term planning is becoming increasingly important.
In addition to long lead times, the typical project duration to upgrade or install new large power transformers is about 10 years. And after those 10 years, the transformer is expected to last for another 50 years. That’s a total of 60 years before the transformer is retired. Talk about a test of time.
But, what can happen during 60 years? Let’s have a look at what changed in USA in the last 60 years.
60 years ago, in the mid 60s:
Then: No homes had air-conditioning. Now: 87% of households in the US has an air-conditioner. With the typical power demand for an air-conditioner being about 4 kW. That is 375 GW of new power demand!
Then: No homes had dishwashers. Now: 74% of households have a dishwasher, with a typical power demand of 2 kW. That is almost 200 GW of new power demand, from washing dishes!
Then: Peak demand in the US in the 60s was about 180 GW. Now: in 2024 it was about 750 GW. That is a quadrupling in demand!
So, what can we expect for the next 60 years?
Well, it’s hard to make relevant prediction whether there will be flying cars or lightsabers (electric ones, that need charging obviously) in the coming 60 years. But we know one thing. We are in the early phase of a time-period with some of the biggest changes seen in modern times. Societal changes impacting the grid are growing exponentially, while the power grid is currently growing incrementally. Unless grid planning is speed up, we risk that grid will become the energy transition barrier.
Yet, we can’t avoid the fact that there are uncertainties about which future we will end up in. Preferably, we want to understand uncertainties and impacts of different futures and the best way of doing this is through a detailed development, and analysis of different futures. Meet Endre’s scenario-based grid planning. We will dwell deeper into scenario-based grid planning in a future article, but we will give you a brief introduction.
Scenarios represent different futures and associated outcomes. These scenarios can, and should be, connected to specific local conditions. District heating or cooling can have important contribution to power demand in certain areas, but not in others. Different EV charging strategies impact different areas, climate change scenarios have different implications depending on the region, active participation of customers will vary depending on ability to perform control and economic incentives. With recent developments in data availability and AI, these options don’t need to be black boxes of assumptions, but can be measured and modeled. Scenario-based grid planning includes all the above, and the process of how you work with and evaluate different scenarios.
Without proper analysis of long-term demand, in the worst case, you as a grid operator won’t have time to expand the grid in time for components to fail, or need to decline new connection requests due to a lack of capacity. This will hurt your finances, your local community and the climate.
At Endre, we specialize in providing the best possible information about future investment needs to grid operators. We make sure that you have the best possible insights at your hand. If you want to learn more about Endre’s solution for grid planning, reach out for a demo!
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